There will be a recession. The business cycle has not been repealed. The question is whether that will occur this year or next year or five years from now. I don’t know when this will occur. The technical definition of a “recession” is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The financial press is obsessed with this definition.

As Winston Churchill said, “the future, though imminent, is obscure.” That is particularly true today. Just this morning, I read one prediction from a major source that the price of oil is going to $380 a barrel, and another from a similar source that it will drop to $45. With so much in flux and transition around the world, this is a harder time than most to make predictions 3 years in the future. But I will do it anyway, with the caveat that any more “black swans” cruising in like the virus can always change everything.

Predictions – ESG and the Climate Change Worshipers will win. The world will lose. ESG is the new Communism

When any of us are making predictions, it is important to try to mitigate the biases that we all have in order to make a more rational judgment about what may come to pass. A committed Democrat will always have a bias towards predicting their side will prevail as will a committed Republican. That is where hope and bias leaks in to influence thought.

Last week’s decision by the United States Supreme Court on the Dobbs case, returning abortion laws to the states, was expected but still has generated much joy and anger around the country. I wrote a piece in these pages back in May after the leak of said decision came out entitled “Divisions Deepen.” For any of you new subscribers who missed that, I am reprinting it here.

It will not surprise regular readers of these missives that I am and have long been a Star Trek fan. Now, I was not fanatic enough to attend any conventions dressed as a Romulan, but I did write letters to the studio in the late 60s in an attempt to keep the show on the air. Our appeals were successful to get season 3 but failed to obtain a 4th season of the original series.

I am not anti-electric vehicles. In fact, I own two of them. I did not buy them because I believe any of the garbage that somehow, I am saving the planet with them. I am a car guy and I bought them because I enjoy the very different driving experience and because I think the technology is fascinating. Neither of them are Teslas, however. Personally, I am not fond of Teslas.

You are not paying anything to read this blog. That is good, because I am going to make some predictions about a bunch of things over the next month and said predictions are probably of little if any value. However, I will make them anyway. I obviously think I’m right about these things or I would not make any prediction at all. The captivating Mrs. Campbell, my wife of 43 years, will be happy to enumerate all the times I have been wrong…if you have a few days.

When I was in Congress, after any tragedy be it natural or man-made, the press was on me instantly for a reaction. I hated this. Obviously the first thing you do is offer sympathy and solace and, if you are a person of faith, prayer for the victims and their families. Although you have to do it, my own words rang hollow to me since I did not know these people and often did not know this place. How could my thoughts provide any comfort to anyone other than myself?

Growing up in California, we had all been told and came to learn that many trends started in California and then spread nationally. This was, for the most part, a good thing in the 60s, 70s and 80s. The tax revolt movement of proposition 13, the liability protection limits for medical malpractice, the clean air policies are all just examples of voter inspired activities that spread from the formerly golden state. From 1968 until 1988, all but 6 of those years a California Republican occupied the White House. And, of course, maybe the best thing to come from California in this period: The Beach Boys.

The leak of the Supreme Court draft decision in the Dobbs v Jackson abortion case has been front page news for the last couple of weeks. The Democrats and their allies in the Tech and Media Cabal believe this issue will motivate their base to come out and vote in November perhaps saving them some seats or even the majority in the Senate. Maybe. At the moment, it looks like they will run on a platform of January 6th and Roe v Wade because any of the issues pertinent to the daily lives of most Americans look bad for the party in charge. So, the cabal will keep the issue front and center through November.

Some years ago, when the whole climate change cacophony began, I was not that worried about it. It seemed to me that they were just environmentalists going a little too far beyond clean air, water and open space into this ethereal area of “greenhouse gases.” Of course, back then, it was called “global warming.” The shift in nomenclature from “global warming” to “climate change” occurred about 15 years ago or so.

As I write this, The government just released their “estimate” of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of 2022. It was down 1.4%. This was a surprise to many, including to me. After all, the GDP growth in the previous quarter was up 6.9%. That’s a big swing in 3 months. What happened? According to reports, GDP was down because of increasing trade deficits as well as supply chain problems.

Certain issues tend to belong to one political party or the other. For example, Republicans have “owned” the issue of national security pretty much since the cold war started. That is still the case. Democrats, on the other hand, have owned the issue of education for as long as I can remember. That, however, may be changing.

I often wake up in the middle of the night. I didn’t used to. It’s a function of being older than dirt, I guess. I used to fight it, but now I embrace it. It’s quiet and a good time to think. Once I’ve jotted my thoughts down, I can often return to sleep and get a few more hours in so that the next day is not a total loss. Last night, I had a bunch of quick thoughts on a number of items that are only related to one another in that they are all political in nature.

Income inequality is a real thing. I’m not fond of the term (I think it should be increasing income disparity), but it exists and it has been increasing steadily in the U.S. and most advanced economies for 40 years. It is greater in blue states than in red ones.