“What now my love, now that it’s over.
I feel the world, closing in on me.
Here come the stars, tumbling around me.
And there’s sky, where the sea should be.
What now my love, now that you left me.
How can I live, through another day.
Watching my dreams, turning to ashes.
And all my hopes, into bits of clay.
Once I could see. Once I could feel.
Now I am numb.
I’ve become unreal.
What now my love,
Now there is nothing.
Only my last goodbye.”
Originally a French song in 1961, subsequently performed by over 150 artists in English and instrumental versions including Sinatra, Herb Alpert, Judy Garland, Sonny & Cher, Aretha Franklin and Shirley Bassey. But to me, nothing beats The King’s performance live from Hawaii in 1973.
Counting is still going on in a number of races across the country, and every race in California, but the Midterms are over and we know more than we did a week ago.
We know that Democrats turned out in historic numbers and 98% of them voted for Democrats. And, we know that Republican turnout was very poor and 15% of those who did vote also voted for Democrats. We also know that independents split strongly in favor of Democrats. Any one of those five metrics swinging to the left could cause Ds to win. Two or three going Dem would be a wave. All of them going strongly Dem is what I and others have called a tsunami, but one pundit calls a “100 year flood.”
Lots of conservatives were screaming prior to the election that the polls were wrong. They were wrong. But, they undercounted Democrats not Republicans. I feel for legitimate pollsters these days. In order to be correct, you have to accurately predict the turnout of each class of voters. And you can really only do that by guessing. No one tells you they are not going to vote. It makes them look bad. The polls were at least correct that it was going to be bad for Republicans.
As I am writing this, we don’t know yet who the Democrats will pick as a Speaker. In normal times, Hakeem Jeffries, having engineered his caucus to a huge victory, would be a shoo-in. But these are not normal times. If someone else is elected Speaker, who that someone is will say a lot about which faction is in charge on the Dem side of the House. Listening to all Jeffries has said post-election, his rhetoric has been hard left. That shows where he thinks he is vulnerable.
There are noises about Trump and the Dems trying to get along. I don’t buy it. The Dems cannot pass any meaningful part of their agenda while Trump is in office. So, they will be focused on setting the table for a Democratic nominee to win the presidency in 2028. Then, they can do what they want. Their majorities in both Houses are so huge that they will retain those absent a big red wave in 2028. They might lose seats, but to lose enough to have the majority flip would require a wave the other way. It is possible for that to happen, but it will not be the base case for either party.
What is the best way for the Dems to win in 2028? Same way they won in 2026. Make an unpopular Donald Trump the issue which unifies their party and disillusions Republicans. They can’t keep him as an evil boogie man by making too many deals with him. In no way do they want to help him look good.
I know, I know. What about the good of the country? The reality is that both sides think the good of the country can only be accomplished by their side winning. Compromise will not do that.
So what will Trump do? I have no idea. I suspect he hasn’t even worked it out. But his nature is not to shrink and be quiet and let others carve their own paths independent of him. That’s just not who he is. So, he might play right into the Dems hands, unless he can improve his popularity over the next 20 months or so. He probably needs to end the war in Iran one way or another in the next 6 months. If that drags on, it’s hard to not see President AOC having an advantage.
That said, Trump and his team may be unappealing at times, but they are not idiots. I suspect they have some economic and foreign policy cards up their sleeves that they can play. Time will tell.
All of this fits into my 4th Turning narrative as well. Getting along is not what happens when both sides, and the public, believe that the system is broken and untrustworthy and needs to be fixed.
Here are a few more things you may not know:
Voter ID: Twelve states had initiatives to require voter ID at the polls and/or for mail-in ballots and/or affirming that only legal citizens can vote. Nine of those states approved them and three rejected them. The nine that approved voter ID were Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, South Dakota, West Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Oklahoma. Note that four of those nine states have Democratic governors who were just elected or reelected and who almost universally oppose voter ID. So the people voted for Voter ID and a governor who opposes it. The three that rejected it are California, Colorado and Arizona. Arizona is the only surprise there, but all three of those states had the description of the initiative written by a Democrat AG. Easy to vote to secure integrity in elections and ensure only citizens vote versus “denying voting rights” or “making it harder to vote.”
Filibuster: Many believe that the Dems in the Senate will immediately eliminate the filibuster. I don’t. They would be dumb to do it now. If they do it now, they still don’t get anything passed over Trump’s veto and if Republicans were to win back the majority in 2028, the Dems will have given them a huge gift to pass 51 vote legislation. It’s also unpopular and will cost them votes in some states. But if they hold the majority in 2028 and do it then with President Buttigieg, then they can pass no end of socialist/communist legislation like neither side has been able to do since the depression. They want to do it for sure. But they will wait until the time is right.
National Popular Vote: One of Democrats’ big priorities is the “National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.” Dems believe that even when they lose the electoral college, that they often win the popular vote. And, with tens of millions of 100% mail-in ballots floating around the Pacific Coast states, they can get an extra million votes in California and make it so the small states votes don’t matter. The compact pledges that a given state’s electoral college votes go to the winner of the national popular vote instead of the winner of the vote in that state. It is a way to effectively eliminate the purpose of the electoral college (to give small states a voice so they are not ignored) without actually eliminating it or changing that pesky racist constitution. Right now, 18 states and DC have voted to join the pact amounting to 222 electoral votes. If they get enough states to equal 270, then the deed is done, since the remaining states could not pick a winner even if all of them supported the other candidate. After last Tuesday’s election, there are five new states that have not yet joined the Compact but where the Democrats now hold the government trifecta. They are Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. You only need the three biggest, or four of the five in any combination to approve the Compact. Then the Electoral College as we know it is done. States could later reverse this, but not until after 2028.
Will there be legal challenges to this? Of course. Will they be successful? I don’t know. And there are ambitious Democrats who are exploring a run for president in at least three of those five states.
I have lots more analysis coming. But, I think I’ll end it there for today. One of the things I will be reviewing in coming weeks is the status of various states as to whether they can stay red or might continue down the blue path. I wish I could tell you about blue states going red. But for now, residents in those blue corridors either move or just keep voting the same no matter how bad it gets.
In our song this week, Elvis feels the world closing in on him. I do too. But, he finishes with “there is nothing.” That is way too pessimistic. Winning elections always comes with the obligation to deliver something the people voted for. That is never easy.
We conservatives have a lot of work to do. But it is work that is worth doing and can be done. Don’t give up the ship!
Until next time, I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free
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