“Try to see it my way.
Do I have to keep on talking ‘till I can’t go on?
While you see it your way,
Run the risk of knowing that our love will soon be gone.
We can work it out.
Think of what you’re saying.
You can get to wrong and still think that it’s alright.
Think of what I’m saying.
We can work it out and get it straight or say goodnight.
Life is very short, and there’s no time, for fussing and fighting my friend.
I have always thought that’s a crime, so I will ask you once again.
Try to see it my way.
Only time will tell if I am right or I am wrong.
We can work it out.
We can work it out.”
This is not the final chapter of my blog. It is simply the last post in this series entitled “Thoughts on Everything.” There will be more blogs, and they will cover almost everything, including election results in November. So, let not your heart be troubled.
With that understanding, I present the Fourth Turning thesis, followed by a few final comments about the upcoming election.
The Fourth Turning: This theory was written in the mid-90s by Neil Howe and William Strauss in their book entitled Generations. I read it in 2000 and have been a fan ever since. Their thesis is that history has a rhythm to it, like most living things, that tends to follow a pattern. They actually trace these patterns not only during the history of the United States, but going back as far as the Wars of the Roses in England in the 15th century. They identify four “turnings” throughout history. Each turning runs about 20-25 years.
So, every 80-100 years, we have a “Fourth Turning.” That is when the “old order,” whatever that is, begins to break down and there is a struggle about what will replace it. The first 4th Turning in American history is obviously the Revolution, when the “old order” of distant colonial rule by a monarch came under pressure. “Four score and seven years” later, the American Civil War determined the fate of slavery and the relative power of the federal government over states rights. The Great Depression started 65 years after the end of the Civil War and led to the New Deal and a World War.
Now, 81 years after the end of World War II, we find ourselves in the next Fourth Turning.
Are systems breaking down? Well, increasingly people argue that Washington “doesn’t work anymore.” The distance between the parties is so great that there is little ability to compromise and solve problems in a way that most of the public supports. The budget deficit is not just huge, but seems to be intractable. There seem to be no budget solutions that would not cause significant social unrest. The position of the United States in the world seemed so clear in the decades after the Second World War. But today, not so much. Many call for the abolishment or complete restructuring of the Supreme Court, the U.S. Senate, the electoral college and the constitution itself. The two largest states, California and Texas, literally pass laws that are the polar opposites of one another.
Clearly there is turmoil. There has been turmoil in the last 80 years. But it has not been this deep or this wide since the last Fourth Turning.
Fourth Turnings do not always end in war. Although most do. There are certainly plenty of wars around the world right now that could expand and/or have an outcome that determines what the future will be like. And what if a president and congress decide that California needs to be like Texas or Texas like California? Will the oppressed state just accept that, or initiate secession? We have already had some blue state governors threaten to use local police or the national guard against federal immigration officers. They didn’t do it. But if they had, that is the very definition of civil war.
In my opinion, and that of Neil Howe (William Strauss passed some years ago) something is going to break within a few years. It has to. We can’t keep going with this much tension, disagreement, hate and conflict. Somebody will then prevail either at the ballot box, the point of a sword, or through police control.
Oh sure, it is possible that some great figure rises to bring us all together and solve problems in a way that the public overwhelmingly accepts. I can’t identify that person at the moment. Where is Dwight Eisenhower when you need him?
The rise of the Democratic Socialists and the Islamists are indicative of a Fourth Turning. They have always been around. But they have never had as much popular appeal as they do today. The unexpected rise of Donald Trump was fueled by a large segment of the population that thought both parties had forgotten about them. Do we engage in Ukraine, Iran, Cuba, Taiwan, Venezuela, Africa? All of them or none of them? Or maybe just a couple. Does Europe melt down and fundamentally change? Does Japan become a closer ally than the UK?
Because the world is a smaller place than it was centuries ago, Fourth Turnings are more global now. A place like France may be the proverbial canary in the coal mine this time. As I write this, The Islamist/Communist uprisings in France have become extremely violent and widespread. The police have had to evacuate from some areas in Paris and other places where the Islamists are fully in control. Historic buildings in Limoges and other cities that survived two world wars, have been destroyed by the rioters waving Palestinian and Soviet flags. They pledge to create a “New France” that will have almost no native French people in control. Polling indicates that native Frenchmen are likely to vote for the right-wing Marine LePen who has pledged to stop these riots and the boundless Muslim immigration that fueled them. That will likely set up another of France’s many violent revolutions and counter revolutions. It is interesting to note how much the left lionizes “native Americans” as the true owners of this country while simultaneously telling native Britons and Frenchmen that they must yield to the takeover by immigrants.
I have no idea what will happen or how any of this will turn out. What I do believe, is that we are in for a very turbulent next five years or so. That turbulence will be social, economic, political and international. This blog in entitled “look through the chaos” because I have seen this chaos coming. I obviously know the side I want to win this battle for our society and will do everything in my power to help that side win. That said, my objective is to look through it when I can to shepherd myself and my family through to the other side. Whatever that other side may be. I am also a big fan of Ayn Rand and her tome, Atlas Shrugged. I read it as a teenager when my mother recommended it and gave it to all my Congressional interns when they left my office. In that novel, inventors, industrialists, and productive people of accomplishment flee becoming slaves to a communist takeover and establish their own society in a place called Galt’s Gulch. In the book, Galt’s Gulch is hidden in Colorado Rockies. Given how deep blue Colorado is these days I doubt we will be establishing such a society there. Oklahoma or Idaho would be far more likely a location.
One more thing on this topic: If you haven’t seen or read Marco Rubio’s speech in Greece in early October, you should. The setting in front of the Acropolis is outstanding. Give a bonus to the advance team that set that up. The delivery is not that great. But the content is outstanding. He basically lays out for the choices in this Fourth Turning for the United States, Europe and the western world. Will we go the way he suggests, or the way of “New France”?
November 3rd: Depending on when you are reading this, the election is only a few days away. I don’t believe the polls because they have so often been wrong. But what they do indicate is direction. If a candidate moves from 10 points ahead to 15 points, I don’t know how much they really are ahead, but they likely did pick up support since the last poll.
Clearly, Republican support is fading. I think the chances of Republicans retaining control of the House are slim to none, and slim may have left town.
However, I still believe Republicans will retain the Senate albeit while losing a few seats. That is just a function of the number of seats Democrats have to pick up (four) and the fact that they have poor candidates in three winnable seats for them (Maine, Michigan and Texas). In a state like Kansas in a normal year, the Republican should win by close to 20 points. So, if the Dems outperform by 15 points in Kansas (which they likely will), the Republican still squeaks by and wins by five or less.
Trump endorsed in most Republican primaries for House and Senate seats. His candidate won almost all of them. The problem is that he chose a candidate based on loyalty to him instead of electability and local popularity. As a result, there are a number of seats that Republicans will lose or have to spend crazy money to barely win because Trump picked the wrong horse.
But there are other things I am watching. Ballot propositions in some states will indicate how the public feels about certain issues. What does it say if the public votes one way on these issues, but elects candidates who are on the other side of those same issues? Is there any turning from blue to red in Oregon, California or Minnesota? How about red to blue in Texas, Alaska or Georgia?
I will opine on all of this once we know the results. That said, I will not wait for California to finish counting in mid-December. No. Really. They won’t finish counting for 35 days after election day. How else can you get those extra ballots you need to attain the government’s desired outcome. As Josef Stalin said, it is not the voters that count. It is the people counting the votes that matter.
Until next time, I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free
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