Trump is a 1990s New Democrat, and a Conservative, and a Populist
“I got an ol’ pair of boots and they fit just right.
I can work all day and I can dance all night.
I got an ol’ used car and it runs just like a top.
Get the feeling it ain’t ever gonna stop.
I got a pretty good friend who’s seen me at my worst.
He can’t tell if I’m a blessing or a curse.
But he always shows up when the chips are down.
That’s the kinda stuff I Iike to be around.
Stuff that works.
Stuff that holds up.
The kinda stuff you don’t hang on the wall.
Stuff that’s real.
Stuff you feel.
The kinda stuff you reach for when you fall.”
We all know that Donald Trump is an unconventional politician. But, I certainly didn’t realize just how unconventional Trump 2.0 was going to be. As his foreign policy and the “big beautiful bill” start to take shape, we are seeing him stake out positions that have been solidly Democratic issues in the recent past, as well as conservative ones, and some totally new ideas all tinged with a dose of populism.
Let’s take a look at some of these positions and then I’ll give my views on the big picture view on what he is trying to accomplish here, and how likely it is he might succeed.
Trump the “New” Democrat
Drug Prices: Going back into the 90s, Democrats have favored allowing the importation of Canadian prescription drugs, which are identical to the American ones, but about a third of the price. Republicans opposed this as “price fixing” and drying up the money drug companies need to research and develop new medicines. I opposed it too, until the drug companies sold out their patients to make a deal supporting ObamaCare as long as Obama didn’t make them lower their prices. I immediately went out and cosponsored a bill to import these pharmaceuticals. Americans basically pay all the development costs of these drugs that the rest of the world gets for a third the price we pay or less. Trump now wants us to pay the same as the rest of the world. This was a Democrat issue for decades, until they snuggled up to those companies after Obamacare. The argument against it, is that it will dry up the money they use for research. If they raised the rest of the world’s prices by 10% and lowered ours by half, it wouldn’t do that.
Income Inequality: The Dems invented this term and have championed this issue for decades. I never liked the term but we all know what it means. I was in a Joint Economic Committee Hearing on this subject when I was in Congress. I pointed out how Clayton Kershaw and Sandy Koufax were both World Series winning left-handed pitchers for the Los Angeles Dodgers. But even adjusted for inflation, Kershaw makes many times more than Koufax did and his salary many multiples greater than the guy throwing peanuts down the aisle than was Koufax’s. I asked the panel of PhD’s in front of me why. They responded that Koufax’s marketability in the early 1960s was primarily in Los Angeles whereas now Kershaw has world wide appeal. So, some of this is a function of technological change. The Dems talked about it a lot, but had no solution except to tax high incomes more and have bigger welfare checks. The big distinction here is that the Democrats said that the middle class was suffering because Jeff Bezos is rich. Trump argues that this is not a zero sum game. Policies can change that allow the middle class to succeed again without taking it directly from Bezos. Trump has made lifting up “blue collar main street” a fundamental objective of his administration.
Anti-war: Democrats have owned the anti-war issue since the 1960s. But somehow Ukraine changed all that and now Democrats largely support wars that they feel are righteous. Mr. Trump knows that it is strength and not protest songs that prevent war. He is trying so hard to avoid deeper involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East. It appears that Secretary Rubio has been successful in calming nerves in the India v. Pakistan conflict. Much of the new trade deal with China is designed not just to benefit American made products, but to lessen tensions with China. Trump wants to be a president who ended wars started by others, and didn’t start any new ones. I expect he will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities if he has to. But, he is trying very hard to not have to do that. Unlike the previous Democrat administration though, one way or the other, Iran cannot be allowed to have nukes. If they get nukes, there will be war.
In 19th Century Britain, Lord Palmerston famously said that Britain had “no permanent enemies or allies.” Many have quoted Palmerston but few followed his words. Trump is.
Tax the Rich: This has been a primary mantra for Democrats for decades. But now Trump favors raising the federal income tax on incomes over $2.5M. I think this was another of his negotiating tools, where he introduces it knowing he will give it up later to get something else he really wants. I just finished reading a summary of the tax provisions in the “big beautiful bill.” Although the 39% rate is not in there, there are a number of other provisions that will reduce deductions and increase the rate slightly for incomes over $400,000. He fixes the estate tax exemption at $15M, but only raises it by inflation going forward. No tax on tips and overtime are all tax savings that will benefit the working class, not the upper classes. Tariffs too will encourage working class jobs while impacting upper class incomes and purchases.
Trump the Conservative
There is plenty the administration is doing that is traditional conservative stuff. The “big beautiful bill” will extend and expand the 2017 tax cuts. Tax cutting is a fundamental conservative principle. As is reducing regulation and government spending, which are of course, the objectives of DOGE. Republicans have long wanted a closed and secure border that does not permit illegal immigration and we are certainly seeing that. A strong military is another core conservative principle. Secretary Hegseth’s quest to focus the American military on lethality has long been a position of the right. And of course, eliminating woke is another very conservative thing, whether you find it in government, universities or corporations.
Finally on the conservative side, getting the deficit down from 7% of GDP under Biden to 3% of GDP is probably not just an objective but an imperative, if we are to avoid a debt crisis.
As I mentioned above, I am following the provisions of the “big beautiful bill” closely. It will change a lot as it goes to the floor of the House and then to the Senate and then back to the House. But a few things are clear. First of all, note that this bill is being crafted in the full light of day under regular order. It is going through multiple committee hearings that are public and where Democrats are present. This is very different from Pelosi’s top-down bill approach that “you have to pass to see what’s in it”.
The bill will generally make the 2017 tax rates “permanent”, meaning they don’t expire on a particular date. But what this is not, is tax simplification. Conservatives have long wanted a flat tax with few or no deductions and special credits. This is going in the opposite direction from that. Tax CPAs like me need not worry that their services will be unnecessary in the future.
Populism: Everything Trump does has a populist element to it. Roughly 75% of all the American casualties in the wars of this century were young, white males from red states and districts. Those are the ones who have been paying the price for our freedoms. But they have not been the beneficiaries of those freedoms. Their jobs have been outsourced to China; they can’t get their kids into college because of discrimination; they can’t get a job or promotion because of DEI; women around them are being raped by illegal immigrants and they and their friends have been dying from fentanyl coming from China, Mexico and Canada.
Under Biden, military recruitment was abysmal because those people were no longer interested in dying for transgender Palestinian activists to get free everything at Columbia University while their families struggle to get by.
Populism was not created by Trump. It was recognized by him. Moving that pendulum back to center is at the core of everything he does.
What’s the Objective?: Trump clearly wants to be a transformative president in the mold of Reagan, FDR, Lincoln and Jackson. You do that in part by having a movement that is sustainable after your presidency is over. The way to have “sustainable” politics is to hold your base together and expand your appeal beyond that base to achieve a comfortable majority.
I was very close to and involved with Arnold Schwarzenegger during his first run for Governor of California and his reelection in 2006. Arnold won in the recall by being unabashedly conservative. When in office, he wanted to expand his appeal beyond Republicans. Over the next four years, he moved away from all the positions that had endeared him to the right, and embraced positions on the left. It did not work. Republicans left him because he was no longer fighting for their issues. Democrats never trusted his shift and did not embrace him either. After two very successful elections, he finished his term with a 25% approval rating. Lower than Biden’s.
Trump is doubling down on many issues, outlined above, which conservatives love. If he stays true here, he should hold conservatives in the fold. Now he is adding those 1990s Democrat issues (which 2025 Democrats have either abandoned or ignored) and the populism in an attempt to build a lasting majority coalition well beyond just Republicans to independents and disaffected Democrats.
Will it work? Time will tell. But betting against the Donald has not been a winning move recently.
The song I picked this week was suggested by a loyal reader of these missives. The artist, Guy Clark, was a Texan who passed away about 10 years ago. This is a country ballad that needs only an acoustic guitar, a fiddle, a couple of voices and great lyrics to make its point. Members of both parties sometimes stay with the policies driven by their ideology even when it is clear those policies are not working. I think much of the Trump agenda is detached from political ideology, and is just doing “what works.” Hence this song.
I Remain Respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free
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